tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84117878335160518042024-03-18T05:41:58.792-04:00UnderreportedUnderreported seeks news articles from the Middle East with significant implications for the region and the United States. These articles, drawn mostly from Arabic, Turkish and regional sources, are underreported in the American media.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-62079769507917827972011-03-28T21:42:00.010-04:002011-03-28T23:00:06.334-04:00Welcome to the Obama Doctrine<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZc-FRHcW88nxPiuProo0k621puY52XwwdfJYwZq-UePNsMBS5xDwSD8_1dP9O3Ed4dBd04MFV2kTHWlKtV9xlUf_gM3MnL1WRayHo-A1e4G2wsyqrW4JzbOIddhB9JKIuP67N3DaIY0yj/s1600/POTUS1.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZc-FRHcW88nxPiuProo0k621puY52XwwdfJYwZq-UePNsMBS5xDwSD8_1dP9O3Ed4dBd04MFV2kTHWlKtV9xlUf_gM3MnL1WRayHo-A1e4G2wsyqrW4JzbOIddhB9JKIuP67N3DaIY0yj/s320/POTUS1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5589324065596770322" /></a><br /><br /><br />President Obama's <a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/03/28/134935452/obamas-speech-on-libya-a-responsibility-to-act?ft=1&f=1014&sc=tw">address </a>to the American people on Monday heralded the birth of the Obama Doctrine. While pundits have been tirelessly trying to extract such a dogma out of his Af-Pak or Mid-East policies, the decision to intervene in Libya is the real thing. Contrary to <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the_obama_doctrine/2011/03/28/AFuKQNrB_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage">Dana Milbank's </a>dismissive take on the "ad-hoc" nature of Obama's foreign policy, I believe the magnitude of the President's speech, though not immediately appreciated, is bound to be recognized for its doctrinal nature. The Libya speech revealed more than a non-doctrine doctrine. The Cairo speech was nice, but it remained nothing more than a speech.<br /><br />In deciding to enforce the United Nations Security Council resolution 1973, which calls for the establishment of a No-Fly Zone and the protection of civilians "by any means necessary," the United States is entering a new foreign policy era. She is not falling back onto Wilsonian/Clintonian ideals of liberal interventionism. President Obama put strong emphasis on America's national security interests in seeing the rebels' succeed in their cause. These interests include ensuring the stability of Egypt, precluding the emergence of a potential "giant Somalia", stabilizing oil markets and ousting a regime proud of its terrorist ties. Libya is not Kosovo.<br /><br />The President refrained from neo-conservative hyperbole as well. No where in his speech did we find the emotionally-charged language of George W. Bush promising a new age of liberty and admonishing freedom-haters and tyrants. More importantly, the United States has set itself to act neither unilaterally, nor preemptively. Benghazi almost fell before the first <span style="font-style:italic;">French</span> missile was fired on a Qaddafi tank. The action was justified by the decision of a neo-con-loathed international body, and carried out in concert with other nations, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, absent are the vows of regime change, cakewalks and the operation "paying for itself." This is not the Bush Doctrine 2.0.<br /><br />Finally, Obama is not the realist people think he is. As much as the national interest is vital to him, the President was also driven by a humanitarian concern for the lives of Libyans jeopardized by a dictator who promised to "cleanse Libya house by house." A hard-core realist may have opted to turn a blind eye to a country that does not pose a direct threat to the security and prosperity of the United States. American power and resources could after all be <span style="font-style:italic;">better </span>saved for or expended at more strategically significant countries (such as Syria, North Korea or Iran). <br /><br />So what do we have in Obama's doctrine? We have a unique hybrid of realistic and humanitarian interventionism. The United States is a country, so Obama's reasoning goes, that will not stand idly by while a dictator unleashes the full force of his military against his people, especially when that military is as vulnerable as Qaddafi's. Yet, such an intervention has to make sense strategically, and must be the outcome of international law and consensus. American interests must be at stake, and its values tested. <br /><br />According to the President: <br /><br />"There will be times when when <span style="font-style:italic;">our safety is not directly threatened, but our interests and our values are</span>. Sometimes, the course of history poses challenges that threaten our common humanity and our common security. — responding to natural disasters, for example; or preventing genocide and keeping the peace; ensuring regional security, and maintaining the flow of commerce. These may not be America's problems alone, but they are important to us. They're problems worth solving. And in these circumstances, we know that the United States, as the world's most powerful nation, will often be called upon to help. In such cases, we should not be afraid to act — <span style="font-style:italic;">but the burden of action should not be America's alone</span>."<br /><br />America will lead collective action that does what is right, beneficial and not prohibitively costly. Obama wants U.S. national security to have the brains of realism, the moral force of Wilson and the belief in the utility of military power of neo-conservatism. Just how well this combination might work remains to be seen. The progress of the rebels and the Arab public support for the coalition action are signs of an effective strategy. That strategy's sustainability against the messiness of history is a different matter altogether.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-12780847809511291322011-03-15T11:37:00.002-04:002011-03-15T11:40:50.872-04:00Take Qaddafi Out! Now!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWOZ6EtmEVvt1yna6HpmbGq6_oI43kyYvcbdV0x2MMu79Se3EIpEjJwETRQGFPmwy2H_dtQ7aTRKTO_Qj5cAd9sR-LzxPEbIXsIeUykNhJh_zfSc_e6ohItX-HTI1cOm3EinCBTrY8BIxO/s1600/qaddafi.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 254px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWOZ6EtmEVvt1yna6HpmbGq6_oI43kyYvcbdV0x2MMu79Se3EIpEjJwETRQGFPmwy2H_dtQ7aTRKTO_Qj5cAd9sR-LzxPEbIXsIeUykNhJh_zfSc_e6ohItX-HTI1cOm3EinCBTrY8BIxO/s320/qaddafi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5584331840070097042" /></a><br /><br /><br />Here is my <a href="http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/15/take_qaddafi_out_an_egyptian_view">latest article</a> on the situation in Libya.<br /><br />I argue for a quick international campaign to aid the rebels and kill Qaddafi, if he refuses to surrender power.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-52056265795272125602011-02-13T12:42:00.002-05:002011-02-13T12:44:27.285-05:00Mubarak must LeaveI had a long interview with the BBC on Friday February 4th to discuss whether Mubarak should leave immediately. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw7lgnxvq-4&feature=related">Here </a>is what I had to say.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-85284966985548029932011-02-11T12:27:00.004-05:002011-02-11T12:35:59.804-05:00Quick Thoughts on the Liberation of Egypt<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhew9gBYH2IUNhJ4z9S8gXWq-F_jHa5Z0iVRpSJlR-nH6w203Ptg-G8RntblaoosdtWpSDigxZ5ZcLHEApuR373BPn9egbSDWqVXxPLC04znEfH1YbSZdEB8iIRT8k2J_M4OPktDLDg_ElW/s1600/protests.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhew9gBYH2IUNhJ4z9S8gXWq-F_jHa5Z0iVRpSJlR-nH6w203Ptg-G8RntblaoosdtWpSDigxZ5ZcLHEApuR373BPn9egbSDWqVXxPLC04znEfH1YbSZdEB8iIRT8k2J_M4OPktDLDg_ElW/s320/protests.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5572486856719661858" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br />Egypt is joyous, jubilant and determined. For the first time in Egypt's 7,000 year history, Egyptians feel free.<br /><br />The January 25th Revolution is truly remarkable, as it has been relentlessly peaceful and civil. In fact, most of the acts of sabotage and arson were orchestrated by the regime itself to intimidate the population, and give the impression that freedom equals chaos. Egyptians, however, remained steadfast in their peaceful protests, and did not even try to storm government buildings.<br /><br />I cannot emphasize enough how pro-democracy this revolution is. People's demand for freedom has been loud, clear and consistent. It was not Islamist, anti-American, anti-Semitic, etc. It was all about democracy and freedom. <br /><br />Why are you still reading this? Tune into Al Jazeera and celebrate with us.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-15829847031968144502011-02-02T08:25:00.003-05:002011-02-02T08:53:55.731-05:00Mubarak's Counterattack<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIRmQ0KEByzo41j-0LX42T4dOIyQGexYTeF-7msVVYiQuHnx771oYonE1tr2dcPwUlNOpnxaTUzVsi85zfe030U20Fly0t9XBafo67UEu_KLKV-wDQ0Z2-5TxiXTciGrenUVxPFgAXrpot/s1600/protests.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIRmQ0KEByzo41j-0LX42T4dOIyQGexYTeF-7msVVYiQuHnx771oYonE1tr2dcPwUlNOpnxaTUzVsi85zfe030U20Fly0t9XBafo67UEu_KLKV-wDQ0Z2-5TxiXTciGrenUVxPFgAXrpot/s320/protests.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5569090002629699858" /></a><br /><br /><br />Hosni Mubarak refuses to heed the calls of demonstrators to step down, and allow a democratic transition. Instead, his plan became obvious yesterday. After giving a defiant speech in which he promised not to run for the next presidential elections (but without offering any meaningful democratic reforms), Mubarak released scores of thugs and plainclothes security officers to terrorize the peaceful demonstrators. These attackers chanted pro-Mubarak slogans to give the media the impression that there are two sides to the story. There were also pro-Mubarak marches composed almost entirely of government employees. The military mysteriously withdrew from Tahrir Square to allow the thugs and plainclothes policemen to attack the peaceful protests.<br /><br />It should be abundantly clear at this point that Mubarak has zero intention to introduce any democratic reforms, or oversee an orderly transition. If anything, it appears he plans to turn Egypt into Saddam Hussein's Iraq. This is why the revolution cannot be allowed to fail.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-44311515547851193972011-02-01T14:27:00.009-05:002011-02-01T14:36:51.730-05:00How to Save America's Alliance with Egypt<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRt_zHGJ_vi-6BVlaVAwQyE2_vV6KWm22Fb8JoMkoG6GrDDILaUc0ER_Io3U00wQwb4e4J-3ZSxcdOxsO9cqAS5qVXdHCgAm0d-VFjJiVqhLWWsdQmfVYxCtuCIhy6-h6i72LiZs31cUru/s1600/us-egypt-flag.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 124px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRt_zHGJ_vi-6BVlaVAwQyE2_vV6KWm22Fb8JoMkoG6GrDDILaUc0ER_Io3U00wQwb4e4J-3ZSxcdOxsO9cqAS5qVXdHCgAm0d-VFjJiVqhLWWsdQmfVYxCtuCIhy6-h6i72LiZs31cUru/s320/us-egypt-flag.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5568806931185859186" /></a><br /><br />Tom Ricks of Foreign Policy and the Center for a New American Security generously offered to host my <a href="http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/01/playing_catch_up_ball_5_steps_the_us_should_consider_taking_with_egypt">recent article</a> on US-Egyptian relations at his weblog.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-30537476596275716872011-02-01T08:49:00.006-05:002011-02-01T08:52:29.660-05:00A Revolution Long in the MakingMy <a href="http://www.bu.edu/today/node/12223">interview </a>with Boston University's student magazine.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-7146848836207825972011-01-29T09:50:00.002-05:002011-01-29T09:53:03.306-05:00Time to Stop DitheringThe Mubarak regime has practically fallen, even if not officially yet. The Obama administration must call for him to step down, and for a national unity government to be immediately established. Has Washington learned anything from the Shah precedent?Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-36086295835115147622011-01-28T16:21:00.006-05:002011-01-28T16:25:39.128-05:00Egypt's Struggle for Freedom<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAYk2R_WzMMZ9xekLAZ4LEw82rVJ__7mEUUWW7rWH11T2WbtuJrYzcl0E_MhmSF38YOycNjXK8DsjhZ5DxnmVu7rL4QGQBs9-QH4dxZS-0ULKPfVzD5fnLFIY-qX9M2paoKYebOrJvgXF/s1600/egyptresized.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 204px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAYk2R_WzMMZ9xekLAZ4LEw82rVJ__7mEUUWW7rWH11T2WbtuJrYzcl0E_MhmSF38YOycNjXK8DsjhZ5DxnmVu7rL4QGQBs9-QH4dxZS-0ULKPfVzD5fnLFIY-qX9M2paoKYebOrJvgXF/s320/egyptresized.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5567350760415820738" /></a><br /><br /><br />Here is a link to my FP article on the developments in Egypt:<br /><br />http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/27/egypt_s_struggle_for_freedomYasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-29524752224862354512011-01-27T16:23:00.004-05:002011-01-27T16:34:44.126-05:00Egypt Boils!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs1bw_h4fcR8_sK2zJbfSZMl0RRI10gk7t-NqQoH3faVcUKrStTXhkCA9NnsJzn1DCym5HkjlIBKA4xhSfcgfZiJxEIaPNGhBNhuUt_jojYVfUfXpox2BpUh_PdSML9X4KKi_mERFFcCft/s1600/Muby.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 240px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs1bw_h4fcR8_sK2zJbfSZMl0RRI10gk7t-NqQoH3faVcUKrStTXhkCA9NnsJzn1DCym5HkjlIBKA4xhSfcgfZiJxEIaPNGhBNhuUt_jojYVfUfXpox2BpUh_PdSML9X4KKi_mERFFcCft/s320/Muby.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5566981900274389362" /></a><br /><br /><br />I talked on Wednesday January 26th to the Michael Dyson radio show regarding the explosvie developments in Egypt. Here is a link to the interview:<br /><br />http://dysonshow.org/?p=3884Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-26892132169338044742010-02-15T15:26:00.007-05:002010-02-16T11:23:11.363-05:00On the Brink<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dyJ6nw7OksxxIY0bNKEJqx-mBOUi6h5qoajupEITXtAemtaTtfkj-hv3U5TiFrw4S-A7VLsk3cut2uKhlZAjA' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe><br /><br />Bad news keeps piling up for the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. Fatah has already been under intense international and domestic pressure. The U.S. has been pressuring President Abbass to forgo his public pledge not to meet with Prime Minister Netenyahu until Tel Aviv declares an all inclusive freeze on settlement activities. Domestically, many Palestinians were rather exasperated at what they perceived as Ramallah's complicity in foiling the Goldstone Report at the UN Human Rights Council.<br /><br />The recent revelations about Fatah personnel's alleged involvement in the assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, a military leader of Hamas, as well as involvement in sexual blackmail of state employees are bound to significantly tarnish the image of President Abbass' party among Palestinians and Arabs. <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/08768E95-CA45-46AD-9360-3A8E4566B4DD.htm">Dubai Police</a> announced today that the assassination team that killed the Hamas leader met with a high-ranking officer in the Palestinian Authority shortly before the operation had taken place.<br /> <br />Meanwhile an estranged former Palestinian intelligence officer released a video tape of President Abbass' personal secretary sexually harassing female applicants for government jobs. <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/6FEAF279-9C39-4D4F-86D5-CE4B8EDAF384.htm">Officer Tamimi</a> warned that the tape which aired on Israeli television was only "a droplet from a flood" of evidence he holds against Fatah officials including the sons of President Abbass.<br /><br />This spells trouble for the Palestinian Authority that is struggling to persuade its people that its crackdown on "resistance" militants was going to jump-start the peace process. It did not. Fatah's old image of corruption is now back in full swing, despite Prime Minister Fayyad's best efforts to the contrary. Additionally, Palestinians are quite suspicious of a ruling authority that, in their minds, seems to adopt a harsher stance towards Hamas than towards the Israeli government. All of this makes it highly likely that should new elections be held today, it is quite probable that Palestinians would vote Hamas into government once again. This time, not even the president's position might be secure.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-75191764804584467912010-02-02T11:32:00.004-05:002010-02-02T11:39:09.604-05:00Chill Out: Why Iran Won't Actually Develop Nuclear Weapons<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLWwAbKEV0CtZ8hezNhwiK7nezqSDmWEo3VTvtv5XLfwIPUurZ4aLOaUBrHXaw3zeuDTJvA09EVdJbUqns4XGM6g7LRxtuZt9d9bj4oB4AWUH_MrfbkCL23chgDq63EAwpPOjraAnI1dC4/s1600-h/4272735376_ce5456bc5e_o.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 298px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLWwAbKEV0CtZ8hezNhwiK7nezqSDmWEo3VTvtv5XLfwIPUurZ4aLOaUBrHXaw3zeuDTJvA09EVdJbUqns4XGM6g7LRxtuZt9d9bj4oB4AWUH_MrfbkCL23chgDq63EAwpPOjraAnI1dC4/s320/4272735376_ce5456bc5e_o.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5433686354495818018" /></a><br /><br />My good friend Tom Ricks and I had a little debate over his yesterday's post regarding the future of peace and nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Even though we did not see eye to eye on the subject, he was kind enough to publish my "rebuttal" in his <a href="http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/02/02/chill_out_tom_why_iran_won_t_actually_develop_nuclear_weapons">Best Defense</a> blog today. Check it out.<br /><br />http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/02/02/chill_out_tom_why_iran_won_t_actually_develop_nuclear_weaponsYasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-1125112445309322102010-01-17T08:18:00.004-05:002010-01-17T08:51:03.329-05:00Quick Notes on the RoadAs I am on the road, I decided to briefly post some of the most remarkable news making headlines throughout the Middle East. They are listed in no particular order:<br /><br />1) Neither Turkish prime-minister Receb Tayyeb Erdogan, nor President Abdullah Gul agreed to meet with Israeli Defense minister Ehud Barak. The boycott comes after a <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=israeli-defense-minister-seeks-to-mend-ties-during-turkey-visit-2010-01-17">recent diplomatic spat</a> between the two concerning a Turkish TV show. Turkey demanded an official apology after Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister literally talked down to Turkey's ambassador to Tel Aviv.<br /><br />2) President Mahmoud Abbass Abu Mazen <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2B22C76B-58E8-4459-97F5-01EEE7DCF287.htm">personally</a> asked the Palestinian Authority's representative to the United Nations Human Rights Council to postpone the discussion of the <a href="http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/specialsession/9/docs/UNFFMGC_Report.pdf">Goldstone Report</a> for six months. This news serves yet another blow to the credibility and legitimacy of Abbass with the Palestinians.<br /><br />3) Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood elected its <a href="http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2010/01/16/97518.html">eighth "Supreme Guide."</a> Dr. Muhammad Badie', a low-profile conservative, to fill in the post. His term begins after a harsh crackdown on many members of the Islamist group, and ahead of the much-anticipated parliamentary and presidential elections. Most analysts expect the Muslim Brothers not to actively partake in the political process for the foreseeable future, and focus instead on social services and Islamic preaching.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-32214070525119638542009-12-23T20:25:00.007-05:002009-12-23T22:22:56.110-05:00At the End of the Tunnel, A Steel Wall!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2mkmBwkv3ZnfLZRt5dX8fSG-zXZl_M8M06nCDeAuPbcCXnrS9Ss5F2eJiyA-TuQc2cAHuBXbCgr4ri47PT1TmvLCO4LPRHWQ2DpmVgvSMAaj3bmm_Pmd8eaiNN-lM2g5J6SemcqdOOaNS/s1600-h/gaza07.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 267px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2mkmBwkv3ZnfLZRt5dX8fSG-zXZl_M8M06nCDeAuPbcCXnrS9Ss5F2eJiyA-TuQc2cAHuBXbCgr4ri47PT1TmvLCO4LPRHWQ2DpmVgvSMAaj3bmm_Pmd8eaiNN-lM2g5J6SemcqdOOaNS/s400/gaza07.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5418637595666600802" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">No where to go...</span><br /><br />If you thought the humanitarian situation in Gaza could not get any worse, think again. After a three year-old Israeli blockade on the movement of people and goods to and from the densley-populated Palestinian Strip, and a devastating military campaign by the Israeli Defense Forces in late 2008, the life of ordinary Gazans is about to become even harder. When Hamas ousted Fatah officials from Gaza, supposedly to preempt a Fatah coup, Israel imposed a harsh blockade that was meant to drive the besieged population to depose Hamas. As usually is the case with sanctions, the average citizen comes to bear the brunt of adverse living conditions while the regime remains in power virtually intact. The blockade largely restricted average Gazans' access to vital medical supplies, fresh vegetables, livestock, clean water, gas, etc. Poverty and unemployment became the unchosen lifestyle of about half of the 1.5 million residents of the Strip. Confronted with these conditions, Gaza's only lifeline became the scarce goods that Tel Aviv does, in fact, permit into the territory, and the flourishing business of tunnel smuggling. According to the smugglers' own estimates, they deliver approximately <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=today%5C22z46.htm&storytitle=ff%CC%CF%C7%D1%20%E3%D5%D1%20%C7%E1%DD%E6%E1%C7%D0%ED%20%ED%CB%ED%D1%20%C7%E1%D1%DA%C8%20%E1%CF%EC%20%C7%E1%E3%CD%C7%D5%D1%ED%E4%20%E6%ED%E1%E5%C8%20%C3%D3%DA%C7%D1%20%C3%D3%E6%C7%DE%20%DE%D8%C7%DA%20%DB%D2%C9%20%E6%ED%CB%ED%D1%20%DE%E1%DE%C7%20%CA%CC%C7%D1%ED%C7fff&storytitleb=&storytitlec=">60 percent</a> of Gaza's material needs from the Egyptian side of the border.<br /><br />To be sure, Israel is not the only party to blame for the plight of Gaza. The Fatah-Hamas chasm has Ramallah hoping for the collapse of Hamas' rule in Gaza at any expense. Hamas, on its part, recently rejected a deal that would have paved the road for reconciliation, as it sits back and watches the ever-declining popularity of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbass. Yet, it is Egypt that deserves singling out for its collaboration with Israel in enforcing the blockade on Gaza. <br /><br />When Israel waged its latest war on Gaza, President Hosni Mubarak made it abundantly clear he was going to neither allow refugees to escape the war by crossing the border into Egypt, nor allow goods to be transferred into the beleaguered territory. His decision aimed to accomplish three objectives. First, he sought to prevent the establishment of potentially permanent refugee camps in Sinai, a la Lebanon. Second, Mubarak, no fan of Islamist movements, was also hoping for the downfall of Hamas. Third, Cairo wished to present itself as a useful ally for the United States whose blessing of the armed campaign was implicit. <br /><br />The above-stated goals are very much the cornerstones of Egypt's relentless campaign since to crackdown on smugglers and its latest decision to construct a steel wall along the borders with Gaza. As news emerged that Egypt was in the process of building a <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5712B132-DFF3-4AE9-A38C-8F24EC17757A.htm">10-14 kilometer long, 30 meters deep</a> steel wall along the border with Gaza, the Palestinian Strip morphed into panic mode. Long lines formed before gas stations, and citizens started stocking whatever food is available in the markets. <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D74D3770-FA1C-4CF5-A59C-74C8D625EA63.htm">Demonstrations</a> along the border broke out almost instantly after the news of the wall broke out.<br /><br />Hamas reacted angrily by renouncing the <a href="http://www.palestine-info.info/ar/default.aspx?xyz=U6Qq7k%2bcOd87MDI46m9rUxJEpMO%2bi1s7cbY3iOFkoLxIbWvp1rJ/iX/%2b2BUaUnQVJVLA5epYscyCfWo6dGKBm9OJSd2YOgUu8nk/%2bKiToQxlh541FSdxhjSv%2bIH8dom%2bBT2qrIE4%2bUc%3d">French-American-Egyptian plot</a> to further besiege Gaza. Hamas-controlled <a href="http://www.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=169592">Palestinian Legislative Council</a> called issued a statement expressing its desire for Egypt to be tried before the International Court of Justice. PA President Mahmoud Abbass, however, emphasized <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5712B132-DFF3-4AE9-A38C-8F24EC17757A.htm">Egypt's sovereign right</a> in building the wall. <a href="http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=237687">Egyptian foreign ministry</a> spokesman warned against intervening in matters concerning Egypt's national security.<br /><br />Egypt's decision to tighten the blockade on Gaza would prove catastrophic to Cairo for three reasons. First, Egyptian and Arab public opinion is going to turn even more sharply against the Egyptian regime. Second, Egypt's erstwhile diplomatic clout in the region would be reduced to a relic of the past. Without credibility on the Arab-Israeli conflict, Cairo would find it increasingly difficult to exercise influence beyond its borders. Syria, Qatar, Turkey and Iran are already filling that vacuum. Third, by enlisting Abbass in defending this project, Fatah becomes further discredited and de-legitimized amongst Palestinians. Finally, Egypt is making herself part of a conflict in which she does not need to be. There are no overriding national security concerns in Egypt to warrant this action. The building of this wall would pit Cairo in a direct, and unnecessary, enmity with Hamas (and potentially the Gazan population).<br /><br />The steel wall would not end Hamas' rule in Gaza. It is possible that the Mubarak regime pursues this policy to ensure Washington's support for Gamal succeeding his father at the helm of Egypt in 2011. It is also possible it is a desperate attmept to pressure Tehran. Whatever the goals, they are unlikely to be achieved. Even worse, as the world marked the twentieth anniversary of the deconstruction of the Berlin Wall, Egypt follows Israel's lead in building yet another wall surrounding the Palestinian people.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-17620213971239696002009-12-16T10:49:00.006-05:002009-12-16T11:06:06.605-05:00Jerusalem, Interrupted<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/173/386621337_3f6f3d8a5a.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 500px; height: 316px;" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/173/386621337_3f6f3d8a5a.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Israeli police at the gates of Al-Aqsa mosque</span><br /><br />In a speech before the U.N. Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, Dr. <a href="http://www.palestine-studies.org/books.aspx?id=591&href=details">Walid Khalidi</a> offers a Muslim perspective on the history, present and future of Jerusalem. Any one interested in understanding why Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims care so much about Jerusalem must watch the following clips of Dr. Khalidi's speech:<br /><br />Part1 <br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x8BM0ry1nM">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x8BM0ry1nM</a><br /><br />Part 2<br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD7SvFARhGI">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD7SvFARhGI<br /></a><br />Part 3<br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SkUyFsnoX4">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SkUyFsnoX4</a><br /><br />Part 4<br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt4bTXu1nF">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt4bTXu1nF</a>E<br /><br />Part 5<br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-dTvd0DYC0">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-dTvd0DYC0</a>Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-29616305910964512982009-12-04T09:03:00.006-05:002009-12-04T10:15:12.596-05:00Obama's Cairo Speech, Six Months Later<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.democratsdiary.co.uk/uploaded_images/barack-obama-cairo-speech-742802.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 489px; height: 312px;" src="http://www.democratsdiary.co.uk/uploaded_images/barack-obama-cairo-speech-742802.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=4751">World Politics Review</a> published an article I wrote on President Obama's failure to translate his words in Cairo into actions. Check it out!Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-21755504897670003822009-11-23T11:57:00.010-05:002009-11-24T20:15:32.041-05:00Too Little, Too Late?!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg82OS7ejuZ8KrFf0tm9fNqEhAbqOTBDBE1erRc5lEfsp8ojpVlGKz4-eK78HNq_Cm-92sQq6KogpGIANQldrECts3DBTRoX5k-huVt-zrFjhYQbUswRKZbK9TBVWV_EvQeGwcW-icFn4jt/s1600/Israel-Turkey.jpg_wh.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 249px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg82OS7ejuZ8KrFf0tm9fNqEhAbqOTBDBE1erRc5lEfsp8ojpVlGKz4-eK78HNq_Cm-92sQq6KogpGIANQldrECts3DBTRoX5k-huVt-zrFjhYQbUswRKZbK9TBVWV_EvQeGwcW-icFn4jt/s320/Israel-Turkey.jpg_wh.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5407366058937921250" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">The resumption of a beautiful friendship?</span> (AP photo)<br /><br />Ever since Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/01/20091291976879610.html">walked ou</a>t of the Davos Summit meeting in protest of Israel's war on Gaza, Israeli-Turkish relations have undergone a steady downward spiral. Erdogan was, in fact, furious at Israel's unilateral campaign that undermined progressing <a href="http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTIxMjM1MTQ3Nw==">Israeli-Syrian peace talks</a> under Ankara's mediation. Tel Aviv did not take kindly to Erdogan's action, and asked Ankara to more or less <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-vents-fury-at-ally-turkey-over-barbaric-tv-drama-1803653.html">mind its own business</a>. Since then Turkey withdrew from scheduled <a href="http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3788011,00.html">NATO military maneuvers</a> in the Mediterranean citing Israel's participation as the reason, and wishes to cancel orders for Israeli-made <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-193724-turkey-gives-israel-new-deadline-for-herons-delivery.html">Unmanned Aerial Vehicles</a>. Erdogan, furthermore, stated his preference for dealing with <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1126694.html">Omar Al-Bashir</a>, Sudan's president, over Benjamin Netenyahu. This comes at a time, when Turkey is pursuing a policy of mending relations with all of its neighbors, including <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8299712.stm">Armenia</a>, <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-syria-agree-to-lift-visa-requirements-2009-09-17">Syria</a>, <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkish-foreign-minister-to-visit-iraqi-kurdistan-officials-2009-10-28">Iraq </a>and <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=erdogan-and-ahmadinejad-discuss-irans-nuclear-program-2009-11-08">Iran</a>.<br /><br />When Netanyahu said Turkey would no longer be a mediator of <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1122352.html">Israeli-Syrian peace</a> negotiations, observers assumed he had just hammered the last nail in the coffin of Turkish-Israeli relations. This judgement might turn out to be premature, however. First, the alliance between the two non-Arab Middle Eastern states is well-established; it is likely to supersede the reign of Erdogan's AKP party. The Turkish military, known for its remarkable autonomy, has had frequent contacts with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Private companies on both sides have made <a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1258705170002&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull">substantial investments</a> in their counterpart's economy. Second, a recently-launched charm offensive by Israel's Industry, Trade and Labor minister, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer may cool the tempers on both sides. On his trip to Ankara, Ben-Eliezer was accompanied by a number of Israeli businessmen seeking to buttress the two countries' trade. Ben-Eliezer went so far as to <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3809516,00.html">contradict </a>his prime minister and emphasize Turkey's importance in mediating the conflict between Tel Aviv and Damascus.<br /><br />Though Turkey's deputy prime minister stressed the need to <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1130076.html">improve bilateral ties</a>, obstacles to a resumption of the status quo ante abound. Speaking to Israeli newspaper Yadi'ut Yahranut, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman described Ben-Eliezer's visit as "<a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3808650,00.html">important, but not coordinated with the foreign ministry</a>." Additionally, Turkish public opinion has been turning sharply against Israel following the war on Gaza which left 1400 Palestinians dead, mostly civilians.<br /><br />It remains to be seen whether the Israeli minister's visit constitutes a thaw in otherwise chilled relations or would prove to be too little too late. I am inclined to argue Turkish-Israeli relations are unlikely to return to their pre-Gaza status.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-49766487776215863242009-11-19T13:52:00.006-05:002009-11-19T14:14:06.369-05:00Update: Football War!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu_ec8Ylmx6QWjsYzBJ71RvtEwiW9IJFtcPjkXpes8genQs-LZJHGe-Kpx8XHLdjHFZF_fSH_2q3Wijk4wRIuYRYRZO0sNomLVjx0jxN5wWKul_28dEAwNmbYEJdce-WldIC7xW0N73rDU/s1600/18qpt99c.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu_ec8Ylmx6QWjsYzBJ71RvtEwiW9IJFtcPjkXpes8genQs-LZJHGe-Kpx8XHLdjHFZF_fSH_2q3Wijk4wRIuYRYRZO0sNomLVjx0jxN5wWKul_28dEAwNmbYEJdce-WldIC7xW0N73rDU/s320/18qpt99c.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5405894477103258402" /></a><br />(Cartoon from Al-Quds Al-Arabi)<br /><br />Amid <a href="http://www.masrawy.com/News/Egypt/Politics/2009/november/19/m7mad_foad.aspx">rumors </a>of attacks on Egyptian fans in Khartoum, Cairo has taken the shocking (un)diplomatic step of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5956D9EA-9B2D-47D4-8C3C-FC7F6FAE3A7C.htm">withdrawing its ambassador</a> from Algiers. The Egyptian foreign ministry had earlier summoned the Algerian ambassador to hand him a letter of protest over the behavior of Algerian fans. <br /><br />Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=latest/data/2009-11-19-18-08-47.htm&storytitle=%C7%E1%D3%E6%CF%C7%E4%20%ED%D3%CA%CF%DA%ED%20%C7%E1%D3%DD%ED%D1%20%C7%E1%E3%D5%D1%ED%20%E6%ED%D1%DD%D6%20%E3%C7%20%E4%D4%D1%CA%E5%20%E6%D3%C7%C6%E1%20%C7%E1%C7%DA%E1%C7%E3%20%C7%E1%E3%D5%D1%ED%C9%20%CD%E6%E1%20%C7%E1%C7%DA%CA%CF%C7%C1%20%DA%E1%EC%20%E3%D5%D1%ED%ED%E4%20%C8%C7%E1%CE%D1%D8%E6%E3&storytitleb=&storytitlec=">Sudanese foreign ministry</a> rejects reports in the Egyptian media of widespread Algerian attacks on Egyptians in Khartoum following the game. <a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1137260.html#fifa+opens+investigation">FIFA </a>is going to investigate the attack on Algeria' national team in Cairo. Egypt is likely to be fined over the incident.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-3475315782330545322009-11-16T11:45:00.018-05:002009-11-19T12:10:18.300-05:00Soccer Politics!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFLD7jq2Mqak0WuYM2PrEiEehgBimeQ3JSjd9RA4coPxeYcVqJCdVhlJlbxG-LatxnYKhpAPoMfTPCzeyNEwNBOXSraxo4S1Vlp_mGXRryc5RiEpCUv1cMqckJ1wOnOFZKziaCx66jwiwd/s1600/Egypt+Fans.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 282px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFLD7jq2Mqak0WuYM2PrEiEehgBimeQ3JSjd9RA4coPxeYcVqJCdVhlJlbxG-LatxnYKhpAPoMfTPCzeyNEwNBOXSraxo4S1Vlp_mGXRryc5RiEpCUv1cMqckJ1wOnOFZKziaCx66jwiwd/s400/Egypt+Fans.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5405279936334617666" /></a><br /><br />(Give them bread and soccer!)<br /><br />Egyptian economist Galal Amin once wondered in palpable remorse: "Whatever happened to the Egyptians?!!" Amin traced in the book that bears the same title the devolution of etiquette and gentlemanly behavior among Egyptians. Following the pre-Egypt vs. Algeria World Cup qualifier game, I personally wondered: "whatever happened to the Egyptians?!" Though Egyptians are generally known for their hospitality towards foreigners and strong pan-Arab convictions, Cairo over the last week morphed into an <a href="http://www.echoroukonline.com/ara/sports/en/44450.html">anti-Algerian hub</a>. Egyptians' vexing animosity towards their Jewish neighbors might have just been replaced by anti-Algerian sentiment. <br /><br />It all comes down to soccer politics (or more aptly sucker politics.) The soccer match held in Cairo last Saturday was going to determine which of the two Arab and predominantly Sunni Muslim nations was going to qualify to the South Africa 2010 World Cup. Both countries have not qualified in at least a decade. A war of words between sports commentators quickly developed into sporadic attacks on Algerians in Cairo, and a stoning of the Algerian national team upon their arrival. <br /><br />The Algerians predictably cried foul and asked the FIFA to intervene. Egyptian police ludicrously claimed the Algerian players had <a href="http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=233232&IssueID=1589">attacked themselves</a>. Hours later, high-level Algerian officials were <a href="http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=233236&IssueID=1589">on the phone</a> with their Egyptian counterparts. The promise of violence between the two nations' fans loomed large over the game. Luckily for the Egyptians (and perhaps the Algerians who attended the game) Egypt won by two goals. <br /><br />For those who watched the game on television, another disturbing show was on. Tens of thousands of Egyptians painted their faces in red, white and black, or simply wrapped themselves in their country's flag. They chanted demeaning and offensive songs of their North African counterparts. It was a show of (uncharacteristic) super patriotism and perplexing hatred of Algerians. These displays were uncalled for, to put it mildly. Indeed, a number of commentators found it hard to decipher where this is coming from. Egypt and Algeria have traditionally enjoyed a harmonious relationship, since Nasser aided the anti-colonial liberation movement in Algeria. This support prompted a retaliatory invasion of Egypt in 1956 by France (Britain and Israel partook in the aggression for different reasons) that proved costly. <br /><br />So, where is this coming from? Let me suggest a couple of possibilities. First, Egyptians' fixation over soccer has little to do with their excessive love for the sport (and it is excessive indeed). Despite a backdrop of growing political oppression, strategic frustrations, economic stagnation, rising unemployment and societal upheaval, soccer offers Egyptians an opportunity to <span style="font-style:italic;">win</span>. In an age when Egyptians feel hopeless, soccer is their only hope; Abu Trika is their new prophet.<br /> <br />Second, keenly aware of its own unpopularity and shortcomings, the Mubarak regime is desperate to use soccer to make itself more palatable. Not only does the Egyptian president proclaim himself the "guardian of Egyptian sports," (a title only cited when Egyptian teams are victorious), but his son, and presumed successor, Gamal attends the game in the stadium to beef up his "ordinary citizen" credentials. If Mubarak's son is to inherit the presidential palace, he has to also inherit the <a href="http://www.masrawy.com/News/Egypt/Sports/2009/november/15/gamal_muabrak.aspx">guardianship of Egyptian sports</a>. Every time the Egyptian team scored, the camera would cut into footage of a celebrating Gamal Mubarak. In short, the Mubaraks have a vested interest in the elevated tension and anticipation surrounding the game. It is an opportunity to advertise Gamal Mubarak to as many Egyptians mesmerized to their television sets as possible. <br /><br />Algerians have <a href="http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=233233&IssueID=1589">counter-attacked</a> by destroying Egyptian properties in Algiers and harassing Egyptian citizens. Little do they know that Egyptians' anti-Algerian tirades emanate not from antipathy, but from exasperation with the prevalent socio-economic and political conditions in Egypt. Soccer riots in Egypt are the continuation of politics by other means.<br /><br /><br /> <iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dwkncS8BXCoG5YPv78b30oBEehINszZzbHuMFwUjXygnUzjnlzJP3BKX2Ng-z96f2zZFP1HNkqjtg4LMhNMkA' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe>Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-3226326242652141362009-11-12T10:23:00.012-05:002009-11-12T12:00:00.423-05:00Lebanon United...?!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEial7lKlU2UaelgDzSmEt3U9HWPK6KzcngqMMIuKmT9oEZuZ4xvYEMYBNvwHiqakhix7HmgBbCjO6W5aXc_vC1Ue9WALtQjUio3gZ9mQBvklDySJJ9JMo2bUvNkS6IqbPiGBRMmtP5XCbcA/s1600-h/Berry,+Nasrallah,+Hariri.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 241px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEial7lKlU2UaelgDzSmEt3U9HWPK6KzcngqMMIuKmT9oEZuZ4xvYEMYBNvwHiqakhix7HmgBbCjO6W5aXc_vC1Ue9WALtQjUio3gZ9mQBvklDySJJ9JMo2bUvNkS6IqbPiGBRMmtP5XCbcA/s320/Berry,+Nasrallah,+Hariri.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5403257926643285282" /></a><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Deal or no deal?! Berri, Al-Hariri and Nasrallah.</span><br /><br /><br />After several months of stalled talks, Sa'd al-Hariri, the prime minister-designate of Lebanon, was finally able to form a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE5A84B620091109">unity government</a>. Al-Hariri heads the "14 Azar Movement," a pro-Western parliamentary coalition that won the majority in this summer's elections. Although 14 <span style="font-style:italic;">Azar's </span>victory exceeded most expectations, cracks did show within the coalition. First, Waleed Jumblat's Druze party defected to the Hizbullah-led opposition. Second, Amin Al-Jemail's "Lebanese Brigades" <a href="http://www.annahar.com/content.php?priority=1&table=main&type=main&day=Thu">publicly denounced</a> Hariri's decision to appoint only one minister from the Brigades in the ineffectual Social Affairs ministry. The Lebanese Brigades also called for a review of the structure of the coalition. These protests emanate from a growing sense of irrelevance among Maronite Christians and Muslim Druze, two minorities whose demographics and political clout have been diminishing vis-a-vis the Sunnis and the Shi'a.<br /><br />The new government is more or less the fruit of a deal between Hizbullah and Hariri's Future party. The deal was arguably made on their behalf during King Abdullah's <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20091007-king-abdullah-visit-damascus-relations-thaw-assad-syria-saudi-arabia">visit to Damascus</a> in October. This episode reveals three things about Lebanon. First, external patrons still call the shots. Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia are all heavily invested in domestic Lebanese politics. Second, the power of arms (Hizbullah via Iran and Syria) and the power of money (14 Azar via Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries) dictate the relative balance of power among the sectarian political actors. In the annual conference of the Middle East Institute in Washington, Sami Al-Faraj, the head of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies openly bragged about the financial influence of the Gulf Sheikhdoms in determining the outcome of the Lebanese elections. Finally, the Shi'a and Sunnis growing populations have indeed eclipsed those of other sectarian groups, most notably the Druze and the Maronites.<br /><br />But there is hope yet for a stable Lebanon. The new government not only enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia and Syria, it also enjoys the support of Hizbullah. Lebanese president Michell Souleiman threw his lot behind it too. This could indeed bode well for the stability of Lebanese politics for the foreseeable future. To be sure, national unity governments often avoid tackling controversial and divisive issues whose mere discussion may well bring down the coalition government. This is why such issues as reforming electoral laws and Hizbullah's arms are not likely to be addressed by this government. <br /><br />More trouble can come yet from the southern borders. Israel claims to have intercepted an <a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1256799087344&pagename=JPArticle/ShowFull">Iranian arms shipment</a> bound for Latika, Syria. The missiles are alleged to have been sent for Hizbullah. A number of senior Israel Defense Forces figures have also warned Hizbullah of massive retaliation, should the Lebanese militia avenge the assassination of its military mastermind, Emad Moughneih. Hassan Nassrallah, the Secretary General of Hizbullah, speaking on "Martyr's Day" issued a stark warning for Israel not to launch a war on Lebanon, or risk the "<a href="http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/165333">crushing of its army</a>." He neither affirmed nor denied the Israeli claim of his group's possession of 325 kilometer-range missiles, though he promised any land invasion to be nothing short of a quagmire. Hizbullah's political bureau chief <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3803838,00.html">Mohammed Qomati</a> also warned that "all cities, military bases, factories, and settlements in Israel are within the organization's firing range." Qomati continued, "The enemy knows that any offensive initiated under the current conditions will ensure his total defeat, will change the balance of power in our favor, and will bring about the end of its entity."<br /><br />Hizbullah's secretary general had <a href="http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=110791&language=ar">select words</a> for the Obama administration as well. After accusing Washington of deliberately backpedaling on the settlements stance, he admonished his followers that the <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3803960,00.html">Obama administration's "infinite" commitment</a> to Israel's interests security is unprecedented. Nasrallah painted a pro-Israeli Obama administration that does not care about the needs of the Arab world. The Cairo speech was a scam, he implied.<br /><br />As Hariri struggles to stabilize his country domestically, Lebanon's foremost challenge appears to be avoiding another devastating war with Israel. Neither Nasrallah nor Ashkinazi are helping.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-21543812324057955842009-11-03T11:06:00.018-05:002009-11-05T12:50:28.155-05:00The Best Defense is a Good Offense<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuhP4dKFz6ReWrnBXy52lffIByj7ZWyNb9bejFqwmp_8Gaun8XAVKn7PlC75OlXpH89ima6832Ezn80VbNGjPRC8j4S2yxIai2tAqhsbZx48Ow8pONNJ0OB4T9AIZ9egTAAHEER41knTKP/s1600-h/NDP.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 257px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuhP4dKFz6ReWrnBXy52lffIByj7ZWyNb9bejFqwmp_8Gaun8XAVKn7PlC75OlXpH89ima6832Ezn80VbNGjPRC8j4S2yxIai2tAqhsbZx48Ow8pONNJ0OB4T9AIZ9egTAAHEER41knTKP/s320/NDP.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5399928237668452658" /></a><br /><br />Observers of Egyptian politics had predicted the annual convention of the ruling National Democratic Party would address the issue of "succession." Would Gamal Mubarak be annointed by his party as the presidential candidate for the upcoming elections in 2011? Would his father retire, and make sure the transition is smooth? Or would Hosni Mubarak assert himself as the president of Egypt until death do them part? <br /><br />For the speculators, the convention appeared rather underwhelming. The anticipated speeches by the Mubaraks and Ahmad Ezz, the NDP's billionaire secretary-general of <span style="font-style:italic;">coordination</span>, left the questions unanswered. The clouds surrounding the future of post-Mubarak Egypt still loom large. What most NDP officials did in their speeches, however, was wage scathing attacks on the opposition, with the popular Muslim Brotherhood receiving the lion's share. To be sure, Hosni Mubarak's speech amounted to no more than a statement rehashing his old cliche's about Cairo's paramount regional influence. The others did the dirty work.<br /><br />The attacks on the Muslim Brothers were unprecedented, and visibly prearranged. Having arrested many senior members of the Islamist group, including prominent moderates, the Mubarak regime seems to be turning up the heat even further. The convention included <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=today%5C02z48.htm&storytitle=ff%DE%ED%C7%CF%ED%E6%E4%20%D8%C7%E1%C8%E6%C7%20%C8%E3%D5%C7%CF%D1%C9%20%C7%E3%E6%C7%E1%E5%C7%20%E6%C7%CA%CE%C7%D0%20%C7%CC%D1%C7%C1%20%D6%CF%20%C7%E1%E3%D1%D4%CFfff&storytitleb=%E3%D5%D1:%20%C7%CE%CA%CA%C7%E3%20%E3%C4%CA%E3%D1%20%C7%E1%CD%D2%C8%20%C8%CA%D5%DA%ED%CF%20%D6%CF%20'%C7%E1%C7%CE%E6%C7%E4'%20%E6%CA%DA%E5%CF%C7%CA%20%C8%DC%E5%ED%C6%C9%20%DE%E6%E3%ED%C9'%20%E1%E3%D1%C7%DE%C8%C9%20%C7%E1%C8%D1%C7%E3%CC%20%E6%C7%E1%DD%D6%C7%C6%ED%C7%CA&storytitlec=">threats</a> to arrest the group's supreme guide, confiscate its possessions, block its media access and ban the organization from partaking in the <a href="http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=231940">next parliamentary elections</a>. This escalation does not seem to be justified by any recent conduct on the part of the <span style="font-style:italic;">Ikhwan</span>. On the contrary, Mahdi Akef's tenure as a supreme guide is characterized by timidity and indecisiveness. The Brothers did not react meaningfully to the arrest of many of their senior members. They have even ruled out the possibility of contesting the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/360DF6EB-1314-4B92-B4CC-97243FC13454.htm">2011 presidential elections</a>. So, what is this all about?<br /><br />Two reasons come to mind. First, the Mubarak regime has been studiously working to pave the ground for Mubarak, Jr. to assume power after his father. The NDP-dominated Egyptian parliament introduced a constitutional amendment guiding presidential elections that is custom-tailored for Mubarak's son. The presumed successor has also made numerous trips to Western capitals, most notably Washington D.C. to reportedly win their support for him. The Muslim Brotherhood, as the largest, best-organized and most popular opposition group in Egypt, constitutes the single foremost obstacle to the Mubaraks' plan. The regime is wary of their reaction to the prospective succession, and would rather not make deals with them to facilitate the process. By waging a verbal offensive on the group, the NDP hopes to neutralize them out of the upcoming transfer of power. The idea is that the Islamists would opt for their classic model of social charity rather than active political participation. If the Brothers refrain from intervening, there will be no strong hurdle to the Mubaraks remaining in the <span style="font-style:italic;">'Orooba</span> presidential palace.<br /><br />Second, the Ikhwan are undergoing internal turmoil. Having not taken noteworthy measures to protest the arrest of leading members, many cadres are starting to question the leadership, a hitherto taboo within the 91 year-old organization. Additionally, Akef surprised the groups' members by announcing his intention to retire from the supreme guide position, a decision not made by any of his predecessors. Speculation is aplenty regarding the person who would replace Akef. The NDP wishes to capitalize on this sense of uncertainty within the organization, and force them to be preoccupied with their internal affairs for a while.<br /><br />The NDP's recent escalation against the Muslim Brothers seems to be driven by anxiety about the prospects of ensuring a smooth power transition from Hosni Mubarak to his son as much as by the Islamists' weak leadership. The plan misses two critical aspects about Egyptian politics, however. First, the Muslim Brothers will continue to remain the most potent and popular political force in Egypt for the foreseeable future, thanks in no small measure to the services they provide to the populace. Second, Mubarak and his son are profoundly resented by Egyptians who are exasperated with their ever-declining living standards, and diminishing political freedoms. The Muslim Brotherhood may be neutralized when the transition occurs, but will Egyptians?Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-43844955798194855862009-08-15T03:21:00.010-04:002009-08-15T04:25:29.267-04:00Israel, Deterred?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQFkY2c8S8zcxLViQda-wjOZwLzKea3bPPh9iWg5T9OvYzR5kgzHUubJK_GDeER5qEoAcj84hDhDY77Ri9CdLj6rReTX0rrVRhByebmrJPjYALzbQxqeb7PTnALzTSQY9OHKsqTnQRiV4F/s1600-h/Divine+Victory.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 248px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQFkY2c8S8zcxLViQda-wjOZwLzKea3bPPh9iWg5T9OvYzR5kgzHUubJK_GDeER5qEoAcj84hDhDY77Ri9CdLj6rReTX0rrVRhByebmrJPjYALzbQxqeb7PTnALzTSQY9OHKsqTnQRiV4F/s400/Divine+Victory.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5370103554525208466" /></a><br /><br />Cheering Supporters of Hizbullah<br /><br />"We do not seek a war, and we are not afraid, but it may well be that Israel wants a war (with Lebanon) of which it is frightened." This sums up the message of Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in his speech on August 14th marking the third anniversary of the exit of Israeli troops from Southern Lebanon. Nasrallah gave a typical crowd-rousing speech; but his charisma to the Arab public is not a surprise. His counter-threats are. For a few weeks, Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, issued various threats against Hizbullah and Lebanon. They warned primeminister-elect Sa'd El-Hariri of including the Shi'a party in a national unity government, or else all of Lebanon's infrastructure will be <a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1249418567140&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull">fair game</a> in a prospective war. Tel Aviv's hawkish rhetoric seemed to emanate, in part, from growing concern over Hizbullah's <a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1249418536710">expanding armaments</a>. <br /><br />Nasrallah analyzed the situation differently, however. He claimed Israel wanted primarily to hamper the formation of the national unity government in Beirut by renewing internal controversy regarding the role of Hizbullah in Lebanon. Israel, according to Nasrallah, also wished to modify the mandate of the UNIFIL forces, so they can actively intercept the movement and operations of Hizbullah personnel and arms. On both accounts, Tel Aviv was disappointed. First, the controversy over Hizbullah's strategic posture in Lebanon does not appear to be an overriding concern for the March 14th bloc any more. They may have come to accept it as a fait accompli. Nasrallah shrewdly capitalized on that by reinforcing the concept of a <a href="http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/151974">new Lebanese national security</a> that comprises both a strong national army, and the irregular guerrillas of Hizbullah. Even more significantly, representatives of virtually all Lebanese parties (ruling and opposition)and the Presidency attended Hizbullah's "Divine Victory" ceremony. It was especially telling to see Taymour Junblat, son of Druze Leader Walid Junblat (recently defected from March 14th) among the seated VIPs.<br /><br />Perhaps last night's most important statements were the warnings that Tel Aviv will be bombed, should Israel target Beirut or its Southern Suburbs (Shi'a neighborhood considered Hizbullah's stronghold), and that the "Resistance's" missile can now reach <a href="http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=99092&language=ar">any point on Israeli proper</a>. Nasrallah went further to promise the Israeli Defense Forces a crushing defeat and a lot of "surprises", should they venture once more into Lebanon's south. All of this fiery rhetoric comes at the backdrop of intense speculation of Hizubllah's possession of high-precision missiles capable of carrying heavy war heads (600 kilograms of explosives), anti-air craft batteries and anti-ship guided missiles.<br /><br />It may remain a mystery whether the Lebanese militia does in fact hold such advanced weaponry (their arms' sophistication exceeded most analysts' expectations in 2006). One thing is clear, however, Israel will think twice before marching into Lebanon. Israel's stated aim of war in 2006 to root out the "Islamic Resistance" from Southern Lebanon looks more distant than ever in 2009. More ominously for Tel Aviv, Israel's entire population is now at risk, as well as all of its industries. Hizbullah's strategic posture is unprecedented insofar that this is the first time, since its inception that Israel's home turf may suffer significant damages and losses. It used to be the case that Arab-Israeli wars were fought on Arab lands, and civilian casualties most confined to those of Arabs. This may no longer be the case.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-25126761620348698472009-08-09T07:09:00.004-04:002009-08-09T07:14:45.455-04:00The Irony of American History<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiztsOsiR8O0IjoCn9g8nLTqxmhV4mFQkSIYfZTji-83inUUtxgjqWavCCLwxjtUWOkPx_MjycqVhPDBAhzMiys9yrj-1ZjEQkmyCddiE1oLIPDdntpSQicltNs1vaHhR_n_1nCVquOHc-R/s1600-h/niebuhr1.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 237px; height: 276px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiztsOsiR8O0IjoCn9g8nLTqxmhV4mFQkSIYfZTji-83inUUtxgjqWavCCLwxjtUWOkPx_MjycqVhPDBAhzMiys9yrj-1ZjEQkmyCddiE1oLIPDdntpSQicltNs1vaHhR_n_1nCVquOHc-R/s320/niebuhr1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367919819392265922" /></a>
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<br /></span></p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'>I had the good fortune of reading a book praised by Dr. Andrew Bacevich as the "most important book ever written on U.S. foreign policy." <em>The Irony of American History</em> is a book that does not fit neatly into a single genre. It is a work of philosophy, theology, foreign policy analysis, international relations theory and sociology written in impeccable prose. Reinhold Niebuhr, a theologian, professor and writer, can be described as the founder of <em>Christian Realism</em>. Christian Realism is a conceptual framework which pursues a clear-eyed comprehension of world events, and principally recommends a humble approach to international relations and history.
<br /></span></p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'>The genius of Niebuhr's book rests less with its multi-disciplinary postulations, as impressive as those are, and more with its vision of man, the state and history. To Niebuhr, the individual human is virtually mystic by definition. Scientific and ideological approaches claiming to interpret/predict his/her behavior are bound to err. He laments the fact that "the realm of freedom which allows the individual to make his decisions within, above and beyond the pressure of causal sequences is beyond the realm of scientific analysis." Modern culture's tendency to <em>behaviorize </em>man prompts some to endeavor to manage human nature itself.
<br /></span></p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'>Attempts to manage human nature engender delusions about managing history as well. In the author's words, "[m]odern man's confidence in his power over historical destiny prompted the rejection of every older conception of an overruling providence in history. Modern man's confidence in his virtue caused an equally unequivocal rejection of the Christina idea of ambiguity of human virtue. In the liberal world the evils in human nature and history were ascribed to social institutions or to ignorance or to some other manageable defect in human nature or environment." It follows from this reasoning that human nature and history are <em>improvable</em>. Such a task, Niebuhr would argue, is a fool's errand. The irony is we are as guilty as our foes of that charge. The irony is also glaring in the contradiction between preaching and practice. In Niebuhr's era, for example, the Communists sought to establish a just, free and classless society that would eventually supplant the state through a coercive totalitarian state. The United States, furthermore, was (and is) the vanguard of free liberal nations through the most powerful army in the world. The former failed to found such a community, and the latter sacrificed a lot of its liberty.
<br /></span></p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'><em>The Irony of American History</em>, Bacevich contends, contains four compelling "truths." These are the "persistent sin of American Exceptionalism, the indecipherability of history, the false allure of simple solutions, and, finally, the imperative of appreciating the limits of power." First, the idea that whatever America does must, in essence, be virtuous and right is derived from the way the national myth was devised. Niebuhr explicates America was, in many ways, the new Israel of the chosen people, or rather people who chose to discard the "vices of Europe" and start afresh "in a corrupt world." Washington's emergence as the zenith of world power after World War II did not seem to alter the way Americans perceive their providentially-favored country. Niebuhr himself does not cringe from using such terms as "imperialism" and "hegemony" to describe America's superpower status. In the Niebuhrian paradigm, there is no room for terms like "reluctant intervention" or good vs. evil. Virtue is a lot more ambiguous than we are likely to confess.
<br /></span></p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'>Second, the forces of history are far greater than our oft-misguided attempts to manipulate its outcome. These forces are virtually impossible to quantify or neatly delineate. Niebuhr decries that "[m]odern man lacks the humility to accept the fact that the whole drama of history is enacted in a frame of meaning too large for human comprehension or management." He further admonishes that even superpowers are "caught in a web of history in which many desires, hopes, wills, and ambitions other than their own are operative." Also, "the recalcitrant forces in the historical drama have a power and persistence beyond our reckoning." The unfortunate example of George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq comes to mind. All the arms and contractors of the world's sole superpower failed to render Iraq the type of a safe democratic nation, Washington may have envisioned. This points ties to the following "truths;" power, particularly its military component, is less efficacious (and less desirable) than we may think. Niebuhr advised equilibrium rather than coercive change. The nation's leader must find the common areas where national and international interests meet, not diverge. This is the "art of statecraft." He finally recommends "a sense of modesty about the virtue, wisdom and power available to us for the resolution of [history's] perplexities."
<br /></span></p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'>So what is so ironic about America's history? I'll leave you with Niebuhr's definition of irony, and it'll probably make you reflect on our nation's history. "Irony consists of apparently fortuitous incongruities in life which are discovered, upon closer examination, to be not merely fortuitous…If virtue becomes vice through some hidden defect in the virtue; if strength becomes weakness because of the vanity to which strength may prompt the mighty man or nation; if security is transmuted into insecurity because too much reliance is placed upon it; if wisdom becomes folly because it does not know its own limits—in all such cases the situation is ironic." Niebuhr is correct about the irony inherent in these situations, but the irony is universal to all great powers, not merely America.
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<br /> </p><p><span style='font-family:Times New Roman; font-size:12pt'>* Niebuhr, Reinhold. <span style='text-decoration:underline'>The Irony of American History</span>. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008.</span></p></span>Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-12997888426526333132009-08-05T15:33:00.007-04:002009-08-09T07:26:55.086-04:00Between a Rock and a Hard Place!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/8/4/1249405322956/Mahmoud-Abbas-addresses-t-001.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 460px; height: 276px;" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/8/4/1249405322956/Mahmoud-Abbas-addresses-t-001.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br />Abbass Overshadowed by Arafat!<br /><br />On its second annual conference this week in Bethlehem, Fatah has no good options. It is squeezed between an occupation that demands that Palestinian territories be pacified and neutralized, and a populace skeptical of the Palestinian Authority's relationship with Washington and Tel Aviv. This “paradox of representation,” as Political Scientist Tamim Al-Barghouti coins it, came to the fore with Abbass’ takeover of power in Ramallah.<br /> <br />Arafat, the main founders of Fatah/ the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), spent much of his time in Ramallah balancing between the two opposites, however unsuccessfully. He signed several peace agreements, intermittently cracked down on Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants, and offered major concessions regarding Palestinian "rights" to historical Palestine. On the other hand, he aided and funded Fatah's militia "Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades," turned down the Camp David Agreement (for arguably good reasons) and turned a blind eye to the eruption of Al Aqsa Intifada. The promise of establishing an independent Palestinian state was the foundation of his regime’s popularity, and for that he was, in effect, parachuted back to the Palestinian Territories from his Tunisian exile. His reign ended in besiegement, destruction of West Bank infrastructure and an ongoing occupation. <br /><br />Since Arafat's death, Fatah has opted for better relations with America and Israel, even when a peace agreement could not be any further. Fatah consistently refused to join hands with the Gaza-based Hamas government, arrested Hamas militants in the West Bank, all but ended Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades’ operations and launched numerous unsuccessful talks with Israeli officials. Seeing no material improvement in their living conditions, let alone a cessation of the Israeli occupation, Palestinians predictably turned towards the "resistance" paradigm of Hamas.<br /><br />In its annual conference, Fatah appears perplexed, irrelevant and weak. First, Hamas <a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1248277897604&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull">banned</a> Fatah members from travelling to the West Bank to attend the conference (until Ramallah has released Hamas detainees). Second, Farouq Al-Qaddumy, a senior Fatah official in Tunis, launched an <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=latest\data\2009-08-08-02-57-49.htm&storytitle=القدومي%20يقول%20إن%20مؤتمر%20فتح%20فاقد%20للشرعية%20ولن%20يعترف%20بقراراته&storytitleb=&storytitlec=">unexpected attack</a> on President Abbass prior to the conference, in which he accused him (and Fatah tycoon, Mohammed Dahlan) of collaborating with the Israelis to poison Yasser Arafat. Qaddumi blasted the Palestinian President, furthermore, for being corrupt, and having his forces trained by U.S. General Keith Dayton. Qaddumi's words mirror the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/3D43DD76-9CF7-4976-BDD5-41B088FC974D.htm">substantial disenfranchisement</a> felt by Palestinian refugees, particularly those who are members of Fatah. Third, many Fatah members are <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/DA0C9F59-5C06-46F8-8DDA-23A5BE7FFB71.htm">dismayed</a> with the appointment of the non-partisan Salam Fayyad, as head of the West Bank Palestinian government. This appointment denied them many of the benefits associated with running a government that relies financially on foreign aid. The discontent goes beyond Fayyad, to be sure. There is an old guard-new guard rivalry within Fatah, and, more significantly, there is disenchantment with Abbass' seemingly futile all-dialogue all-the-time approach towards Israel.<br /><br />On its part, Hamas not only blocked Gazan Fathawis from travelling, but launched severe criticisms of its rival in the West Bank. Most of the criticism, nonetheless, was directed at Abbass who was <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0F24B8CB-45AC-48A9-92E6-86154D020BBB.htm">accused of</a> abandoning the "Palestinian national project... and national goals." <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=today\04z49.htm&storytitle=ffطالب%20اثناء%20افتتاح%20المؤتمر%20السادس%20للحركة%20بعدم%20المتاجرة%20بدم%20عرفات..%20والفصائل%20تنتقدهfff&storytitleb=عباس%20يستبدل%20'الكفاح%20المسلح'%20بـالمقاومة%20الشعبية'%20ويعترف%20بتراجع%20شعبية%20فتح%20ويهاجم%20'ظلاميي'%20حماس&storytitlec=">Fawzi Barhoum</a>, senior Hamas official, claimed Fatah assisted Israel in its recent war on Gaza. Abbass had, in fact, attacked Hamas on the conference's first day, accusing it of "darkness and terrorism" as well as <a href="http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0F24B8CB-45AC-48A9-92E6-86154D020BBB.htm">plotting to assassinate</a> him. Fatah’s predicament is Palestinians are more likely to find more truth in Hamas’ accusations of Abbass than the other way around.<br /><br />The overarching question the Palestinian President (whose constitutional term in office ended last January) had to answer in the conference is: what is the future of the national liberation movement of Palestine? On that, his answer, for many Palestinians, left a lot to be desired. Abbass emphasized principally diplomacy, and, to a lesser extent, the exclusive concept of <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=today\04z49.htm&storytitle=ffطالب%20اثناء%20افتتاح%20المؤتمر%20السادس%20للحركة%20بعدم%20المتاجرة%20بدم%20عرفات..%20والفصائل%20تنتقدهfff&storytitleb=عباس%20يستبدل%20'الكفاح%20المسلح'%20بـالمقاومة%20الشعبية'%20ويعترف%20بتراجع%20شعبية%20فتح%20ويهاجم%20'ظلاميي'%20حماس&storytitlec=">"legitimate" resistance</a>. The foregoing concept is unlikely to find much popular backing, as they have come to see the West Bank government forces, as instruments to crack down on the classical resistance model of “armed struggle.” The President’s outspoken attack on Hamas, and implicitly other militants, reveals Abbass' desire to mend his own fences before solidifying a united national front. To be sure, a Fatah divided house cannot make peace with Hamas. Nevertheless, Abbass sounded more like a partisan figure than a national leader. This does not bode well either for the future of Fatah or that of the seemingly endless Cairo reconciliation talks with Hamas. <br /><br />During the Gaza war, Tel Aviv and Washington quickly realized the full extent of Fatah's irrelevance. Hamas was calling the shots. Fatah could not be relied on to topple Hamas, or even assume power, if Israel did the job. If Israel wants a solution to the missile crisis in Gaza, it must negotiate with the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas. After the conference ends, Fatah would be as irrelevant as ever. It will continue to suffer the debilitating legitimacy crisis it has been experiencing, since Arafat’s death. The Palestinian electorate may not be so kind to Abbass’ party in the next parliamentary elections next year. If Fatah is to make gains, it seems it would be the fruit of Hamas’ own making.<br /><br />Here is the <a href="http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=today\04qpt48.htm&storytitle=ffنص%20كلمة%20الرئيس%20محمود%20عباس%20في%20المؤتمر%20الحركي%20السادس%20لحركة%20فتحfff&storytitleb=&storytitlec=">full text of Abbass' conference speech</a>.Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8411787833516051804.post-59449687192159936082009-08-01T06:21:00.009-04:002009-08-02T06:09:36.674-04:00America in Retrospect<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNp2HZg9UH6aBBLgrI8eI2HtqSxPrhunFh3-niRl-R2RkvB660Nipbds9xmtyrlgJ9UrRvzbyKJiVj-OwMhuwG2ml-gTevKDQf6iDyXLLhwFclbZkJHZpWinnpS3SOvZj4V3MsDObRIqJL/s320/john_quincy_adams.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 281px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNp2HZg9UH6aBBLgrI8eI2HtqSxPrhunFh3-niRl-R2RkvB660Nipbds9xmtyrlgJ9UrRvzbyKJiVj-OwMhuwG2ml-gTevKDQf6iDyXLLhwFclbZkJHZpWinnpS3SOvZj4V3MsDObRIqJL/s320/john_quincy_adams.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />John Quincy Adams<br /><br />How can America’s foreign policy be assessed? This series of weekend blog entries contends that some of the best criteria against which Washington’s international relations could be judged have already been laid by the founders’ expectations and prescriptions. This week, we examine some writings and speeches by John Quincy Adams, Alexis De Tocqueville and James Monroe. <br /> <br /><strong>What has America done for the benefit of mankind?</strong> As odd as the question may sound, John Q. Adams found himself compelled to come up with an answer about two centuries ago. The inquiry, at the time, pertained to America’s very rationale for independence. European powers were interested in subjugating the erstwhile American colony. It is still now relevant insofar that we observe how much the United States conformed to or deviated from President Adams’ answer.<br /><br /><a href="http://http://www.fff.org/freedom/1001e.asp">To Adams</a>, America since its founding has extended a “hand of honest friendship, equal freedom, of generous reciprocity.” America has also defended equal liberty, equal justice and equal rights. More crucially, America, unlike the hitherto European states, respects the independence of other nations, abstains from “<em>interference</em> in the concerns of others, <em>even</em> when conflict has been for principles to which she clings.” “America is the champion and vindicator only of her own,” as she does not go abroad “in search of monsters to destroy.”<br /> <br /><a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/monroe.asp">President James Monroe</a> delivered an equally unequivocal assertion regarding Washington’s intentions and policies. “It is only when our <em>rights are invaded</em> or <em>seriously menaced</em> that we resent injuries or make preparations for our defense.”On that very later point, <a href="http://etext.lib.virginia.edu/etcbin/toccer-reldem?id=TocDem1.sgm&images=images/modeng&data=/texts/english/modeng/parsed&tag=public&part=80&division=div2">De Tocqueville</a> once noted that due to her geographic position and weak neighbors, America does not have much “foreign interests to discuss.”<br /><br />The questions now are: 1) has America’s foreign policy lived up to Adams’ and Monroe’s expectations? If not, 2) did she reluctantly or willingly abandon those principles? Does Washington really lack foreign interests because of her unique geography? Finally, if we had to change course from what John Quincy Adams avowed were America’s benign policy, the original question remains unanswered: 3) what has America done for the benefit of mankind?Yasser M. El-Shimyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959131181288171918noreply@blogger.com4