March 28, 2011

Welcome to the Obama Doctrine




President Obama's address to the American people on Monday heralded the birth of the Obama Doctrine. While pundits have been tirelessly trying to extract such a dogma out of his Af-Pak or Mid-East policies, the decision to intervene in Libya is the real thing. Contrary to Dana Milbank's dismissive take on the "ad-hoc" nature of Obama's foreign policy, I believe the magnitude of the President's speech, though not immediately appreciated, is bound to be recognized for its doctrinal nature. The Libya speech revealed more than a non-doctrine doctrine. The Cairo speech was nice, but it remained nothing more than a speech.

In deciding to enforce the United Nations Security Council resolution 1973, which calls for the establishment of a No-Fly Zone and the protection of civilians "by any means necessary," the United States is entering a new foreign policy era. She is not falling back onto Wilsonian/Clintonian ideals of liberal interventionism. President Obama put strong emphasis on America's national security interests in seeing the rebels' succeed in their cause. These interests include ensuring the stability of Egypt, precluding the emergence of a potential "giant Somalia", stabilizing oil markets and ousting a regime proud of its terrorist ties. Libya is not Kosovo.

The President refrained from neo-conservative hyperbole as well. No where in his speech did we find the emotionally-charged language of George W. Bush promising a new age of liberty and admonishing freedom-haters and tyrants. More importantly, the United States has set itself to act neither unilaterally, nor preemptively. Benghazi almost fell before the first French missile was fired on a Qaddafi tank. The action was justified by the decision of a neo-con-loathed international body, and carried out in concert with other nations, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, absent are the vows of regime change, cakewalks and the operation "paying for itself." This is not the Bush Doctrine 2.0.

Finally, Obama is not the realist people think he is. As much as the national interest is vital to him, the President was also driven by a humanitarian concern for the lives of Libyans jeopardized by a dictator who promised to "cleanse Libya house by house." A hard-core realist may have opted to turn a blind eye to a country that does not pose a direct threat to the security and prosperity of the United States. American power and resources could after all be better saved for or expended at more strategically significant countries (such as Syria, North Korea or Iran).

So what do we have in Obama's doctrine? We have a unique hybrid of realistic and humanitarian interventionism. The United States is a country, so Obama's reasoning goes, that will not stand idly by while a dictator unleashes the full force of his military against his people, especially when that military is as vulnerable as Qaddafi's. Yet, such an intervention has to make sense strategically, and must be the outcome of international law and consensus. American interests must be at stake, and its values tested.

According to the President:

"There will be times when when our safety is not directly threatened, but our interests and our values are. Sometimes, the course of history poses challenges that threaten our common humanity and our common security. — responding to natural disasters, for example; or preventing genocide and keeping the peace; ensuring regional security, and maintaining the flow of commerce. These may not be America's problems alone, but they are important to us. They're problems worth solving. And in these circumstances, we know that the United States, as the world's most powerful nation, will often be called upon to help. In such cases, we should not be afraid to act — but the burden of action should not be America's alone."

America will lead collective action that does what is right, beneficial and not prohibitively costly. Obama wants U.S. national security to have the brains of realism, the moral force of Wilson and the belief in the utility of military power of neo-conservatism. Just how well this combination might work remains to be seen. The progress of the rebels and the Arab public support for the coalition action are signs of an effective strategy. That strategy's sustainability against the messiness of history is a different matter altogether.

March 15, 2011

Take Qaddafi Out! Now!




Here is my latest article on the situation in Libya.

I argue for a quick international campaign to aid the rebels and kill Qaddafi, if he refuses to surrender power.

February 13, 2011

Mubarak must Leave

I had a long interview with the BBC on Friday February 4th to discuss whether Mubarak should leave immediately. Here is what I had to say.

February 11, 2011

Quick Thoughts on the Liberation of Egypt





Egypt is joyous, jubilant and determined. For the first time in Egypt's 7,000 year history, Egyptians feel free.

The January 25th Revolution is truly remarkable, as it has been relentlessly peaceful and civil. In fact, most of the acts of sabotage and arson were orchestrated by the regime itself to intimidate the population, and give the impression that freedom equals chaos. Egyptians, however, remained steadfast in their peaceful protests, and did not even try to storm government buildings.

I cannot emphasize enough how pro-democracy this revolution is. People's demand for freedom has been loud, clear and consistent. It was not Islamist, anti-American, anti-Semitic, etc. It was all about democracy and freedom.

Why are you still reading this? Tune into Al Jazeera and celebrate with us.

February 2, 2011

Mubarak's Counterattack




Hosni Mubarak refuses to heed the calls of demonstrators to step down, and allow a democratic transition. Instead, his plan became obvious yesterday. After giving a defiant speech in which he promised not to run for the next presidential elections (but without offering any meaningful democratic reforms), Mubarak released scores of thugs and plainclothes security officers to terrorize the peaceful demonstrators. These attackers chanted pro-Mubarak slogans to give the media the impression that there are two sides to the story. There were also pro-Mubarak marches composed almost entirely of government employees. The military mysteriously withdrew from Tahrir Square to allow the thugs and plainclothes policemen to attack the peaceful protests.

It should be abundantly clear at this point that Mubarak has zero intention to introduce any democratic reforms, or oversee an orderly transition. If anything, it appears he plans to turn Egypt into Saddam Hussein's Iraq. This is why the revolution cannot be allowed to fail.

February 1, 2011

How to Save America's Alliance with Egypt



Tom Ricks of Foreign Policy and the Center for a New American Security generously offered to host my recent article on US-Egyptian relations at his weblog.

A Revolution Long in the Making

My interview with Boston University's student magazine.

January 29, 2011

Time to Stop Dithering

The Mubarak regime has practically fallen, even if not officially yet. The Obama administration must call for him to step down, and for a national unity government to be immediately established. Has Washington learned anything from the Shah precedent?

January 28, 2011

Egypt's Struggle for Freedom




Here is a link to my FP article on the developments in Egypt:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/27/egypt_s_struggle_for_freedom

January 27, 2011

Egypt Boils!




I talked on Wednesday January 26th to the Michael Dyson radio show regarding the explosvie developments in Egypt. Here is a link to the interview:

http://dysonshow.org/?p=3884

February 15, 2010

On the Brink



Bad news keeps piling up for the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. Fatah has already been under intense international and domestic pressure. The U.S. has been pressuring President Abbass to forgo his public pledge not to meet with Prime Minister Netenyahu until Tel Aviv declares an all inclusive freeze on settlement activities. Domestically, many Palestinians were rather exasperated at what they perceived as Ramallah's complicity in foiling the Goldstone Report at the UN Human Rights Council.

The recent revelations about Fatah personnel's alleged involvement in the assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, a military leader of Hamas, as well as involvement in sexual blackmail of state employees are bound to significantly tarnish the image of President Abbass' party among Palestinians and Arabs. Dubai Police announced today that the assassination team that killed the Hamas leader met with a high-ranking officer in the Palestinian Authority shortly before the operation had taken place.

Meanwhile an estranged former Palestinian intelligence officer released a video tape of President Abbass' personal secretary sexually harassing female applicants for government jobs. Officer Tamimi warned that the tape which aired on Israeli television was only "a droplet from a flood" of evidence he holds against Fatah officials including the sons of President Abbass.

This spells trouble for the Palestinian Authority that is struggling to persuade its people that its crackdown on "resistance" militants was going to jump-start the peace process. It did not. Fatah's old image of corruption is now back in full swing, despite Prime Minister Fayyad's best efforts to the contrary. Additionally, Palestinians are quite suspicious of a ruling authority that, in their minds, seems to adopt a harsher stance towards Hamas than towards the Israeli government. All of this makes it highly likely that should new elections be held today, it is quite probable that Palestinians would vote Hamas into government once again. This time, not even the president's position might be secure.

February 2, 2010

Chill Out: Why Iran Won't Actually Develop Nuclear Weapons



My good friend Tom Ricks and I had a little debate over his yesterday's post regarding the future of peace and nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Even though we did not see eye to eye on the subject, he was kind enough to publish my "rebuttal" in his Best Defense blog today. Check it out.

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/02/02/chill_out_tom_why_iran_won_t_actually_develop_nuclear_weapons

January 17, 2010

Quick Notes on the Road

As I am on the road, I decided to briefly post some of the most remarkable news making headlines throughout the Middle East. They are listed in no particular order:

1) Neither Turkish prime-minister Receb Tayyeb Erdogan, nor President Abdullah Gul agreed to meet with Israeli Defense minister Ehud Barak. The boycott comes after a recent diplomatic spat between the two concerning a Turkish TV show. Turkey demanded an official apology after Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister literally talked down to Turkey's ambassador to Tel Aviv.

2) President Mahmoud Abbass Abu Mazen personally asked the Palestinian Authority's representative to the United Nations Human Rights Council to postpone the discussion of the Goldstone Report for six months. This news serves yet another blow to the credibility and legitimacy of Abbass with the Palestinians.

3) Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood elected its eighth "Supreme Guide." Dr. Muhammad Badie', a low-profile conservative, to fill in the post. His term begins after a harsh crackdown on many members of the Islamist group, and ahead of the much-anticipated parliamentary and presidential elections. Most analysts expect the Muslim Brothers not to actively partake in the political process for the foreseeable future, and focus instead on social services and Islamic preaching.

December 23, 2009

At the End of the Tunnel, A Steel Wall!



No where to go...

If you thought the humanitarian situation in Gaza could not get any worse, think again. After a three year-old Israeli blockade on the movement of people and goods to and from the densley-populated Palestinian Strip, and a devastating military campaign by the Israeli Defense Forces in late 2008, the life of ordinary Gazans is about to become even harder. When Hamas ousted Fatah officials from Gaza, supposedly to preempt a Fatah coup, Israel imposed a harsh blockade that was meant to drive the besieged population to depose Hamas. As usually is the case with sanctions, the average citizen comes to bear the brunt of adverse living conditions while the regime remains in power virtually intact. The blockade largely restricted average Gazans' access to vital medical supplies, fresh vegetables, livestock, clean water, gas, etc. Poverty and unemployment became the unchosen lifestyle of about half of the 1.5 million residents of the Strip. Confronted with these conditions, Gaza's only lifeline became the scarce goods that Tel Aviv does, in fact, permit into the territory, and the flourishing business of tunnel smuggling. According to the smugglers' own estimates, they deliver approximately 60 percent of Gaza's material needs from the Egyptian side of the border.

To be sure, Israel is not the only party to blame for the plight of Gaza. The Fatah-Hamas chasm has Ramallah hoping for the collapse of Hamas' rule in Gaza at any expense. Hamas, on its part, recently rejected a deal that would have paved the road for reconciliation, as it sits back and watches the ever-declining popularity of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbass. Yet, it is Egypt that deserves singling out for its collaboration with Israel in enforcing the blockade on Gaza.

When Israel waged its latest war on Gaza, President Hosni Mubarak made it abundantly clear he was going to neither allow refugees to escape the war by crossing the border into Egypt, nor allow goods to be transferred into the beleaguered territory. His decision aimed to accomplish three objectives. First, he sought to prevent the establishment of potentially permanent refugee camps in Sinai, a la Lebanon. Second, Mubarak, no fan of Islamist movements, was also hoping for the downfall of Hamas. Third, Cairo wished to present itself as a useful ally for the United States whose blessing of the armed campaign was implicit.

The above-stated goals are very much the cornerstones of Egypt's relentless campaign since to crackdown on smugglers and its latest decision to construct a steel wall along the borders with Gaza. As news emerged that Egypt was in the process of building a 10-14 kilometer long, 30 meters deep steel wall along the border with Gaza, the Palestinian Strip morphed into panic mode. Long lines formed before gas stations, and citizens started stocking whatever food is available in the markets. Demonstrations along the border broke out almost instantly after the news of the wall broke out.

Hamas reacted angrily by renouncing the French-American-Egyptian plot to further besiege Gaza. Hamas-controlled Palestinian Legislative Council called issued a statement expressing its desire for Egypt to be tried before the International Court of Justice. PA President Mahmoud Abbass, however, emphasized Egypt's sovereign right in building the wall. Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman warned against intervening in matters concerning Egypt's national security.

Egypt's decision to tighten the blockade on Gaza would prove catastrophic to Cairo for three reasons. First, Egyptian and Arab public opinion is going to turn even more sharply against the Egyptian regime. Second, Egypt's erstwhile diplomatic clout in the region would be reduced to a relic of the past. Without credibility on the Arab-Israeli conflict, Cairo would find it increasingly difficult to exercise influence beyond its borders. Syria, Qatar, Turkey and Iran are already filling that vacuum. Third, by enlisting Abbass in defending this project, Fatah becomes further discredited and de-legitimized amongst Palestinians. Finally, Egypt is making herself part of a conflict in which she does not need to be. There are no overriding national security concerns in Egypt to warrant this action. The building of this wall would pit Cairo in a direct, and unnecessary, enmity with Hamas (and potentially the Gazan population).

The steel wall would not end Hamas' rule in Gaza. It is possible that the Mubarak regime pursues this policy to ensure Washington's support for Gamal succeeding his father at the helm of Egypt in 2011. It is also possible it is a desperate attmept to pressure Tehran. Whatever the goals, they are unlikely to be achieved. Even worse, as the world marked the twentieth anniversary of the deconstruction of the Berlin Wall, Egypt follows Israel's lead in building yet another wall surrounding the Palestinian people.

December 16, 2009

Jerusalem, Interrupted



Israeli police at the gates of Al-Aqsa mosque

In a speech before the U.N. Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, Dr. Walid Khalidi offers a Muslim perspective on the history, present and future of Jerusalem. Any one interested in understanding why Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims care so much about Jerusalem must watch the following clips of Dr. Khalidi's speech:

Part1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x8BM0ry1nM

Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD7SvFARhGI

Part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SkUyFsnoX4

Part 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt4bTXu1nFE

Part 5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-dTvd0DYC0

December 4, 2009

Obama's Cairo Speech, Six Months Later



World Politics Review published an article I wrote on President Obama's failure to translate his words in Cairo into actions. Check it out!

November 23, 2009

Too Little, Too Late?!



The resumption of a beautiful friendship? (AP photo)

Ever since Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan walked out of the Davos Summit meeting in protest of Israel's war on Gaza, Israeli-Turkish relations have undergone a steady downward spiral. Erdogan was, in fact, furious at Israel's unilateral campaign that undermined progressing Israeli-Syrian peace talks under Ankara's mediation. Tel Aviv did not take kindly to Erdogan's action, and asked Ankara to more or less mind its own business. Since then Turkey withdrew from scheduled NATO military maneuvers in the Mediterranean citing Israel's participation as the reason, and wishes to cancel orders for Israeli-made Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Erdogan, furthermore, stated his preference for dealing with Omar Al-Bashir, Sudan's president, over Benjamin Netenyahu. This comes at a time, when Turkey is pursuing a policy of mending relations with all of its neighbors, including Armenia, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

When Netanyahu said Turkey would no longer be a mediator of Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations, observers assumed he had just hammered the last nail in the coffin of Turkish-Israeli relations. This judgement might turn out to be premature, however. First, the alliance between the two non-Arab Middle Eastern states is well-established; it is likely to supersede the reign of Erdogan's AKP party. The Turkish military, known for its remarkable autonomy, has had frequent contacts with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Private companies on both sides have made substantial investments in their counterpart's economy. Second, a recently-launched charm offensive by Israel's Industry, Trade and Labor minister, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer may cool the tempers on both sides. On his trip to Ankara, Ben-Eliezer was accompanied by a number of Israeli businessmen seeking to buttress the two countries' trade. Ben-Eliezer went so far as to contradict his prime minister and emphasize Turkey's importance in mediating the conflict between Tel Aviv and Damascus.

Though Turkey's deputy prime minister stressed the need to improve bilateral ties, obstacles to a resumption of the status quo ante abound. Speaking to Israeli newspaper Yadi'ut Yahranut, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman described Ben-Eliezer's visit as "important, but not coordinated with the foreign ministry." Additionally, Turkish public opinion has been turning sharply against Israel following the war on Gaza which left 1400 Palestinians dead, mostly civilians.

It remains to be seen whether the Israeli minister's visit constitutes a thaw in otherwise chilled relations or would prove to be too little too late. I am inclined to argue Turkish-Israeli relations are unlikely to return to their pre-Gaza status.

November 19, 2009

Update: Football War!


(Cartoon from Al-Quds Al-Arabi)

Amid rumors of attacks on Egyptian fans in Khartoum, Cairo has taken the shocking (un)diplomatic step of withdrawing its ambassador from Algiers. The Egyptian foreign ministry had earlier summoned the Algerian ambassador to hand him a letter of protest over the behavior of Algerian fans.

Meanwhile, the Sudanese foreign ministry rejects reports in the Egyptian media of widespread Algerian attacks on Egyptians in Khartoum following the game. FIFA is going to investigate the attack on Algeria' national team in Cairo. Egypt is likely to be fined over the incident.

November 16, 2009

Soccer Politics!



(Give them bread and soccer!)

Egyptian economist Galal Amin once wondered in palpable remorse: "Whatever happened to the Egyptians?!!" Amin traced in the book that bears the same title the devolution of etiquette and gentlemanly behavior among Egyptians. Following the pre-Egypt vs. Algeria World Cup qualifier game, I personally wondered: "whatever happened to the Egyptians?!" Though Egyptians are generally known for their hospitality towards foreigners and strong pan-Arab convictions, Cairo over the last week morphed into an anti-Algerian hub. Egyptians' vexing animosity towards their Jewish neighbors might have just been replaced by anti-Algerian sentiment.

It all comes down to soccer politics (or more aptly sucker politics.) The soccer match held in Cairo last Saturday was going to determine which of the two Arab and predominantly Sunni Muslim nations was going to qualify to the South Africa 2010 World Cup. Both countries have not qualified in at least a decade. A war of words between sports commentators quickly developed into sporadic attacks on Algerians in Cairo, and a stoning of the Algerian national team upon their arrival.

The Algerians predictably cried foul and asked the FIFA to intervene. Egyptian police ludicrously claimed the Algerian players had attacked themselves. Hours later, high-level Algerian officials were on the phone with their Egyptian counterparts. The promise of violence between the two nations' fans loomed large over the game. Luckily for the Egyptians (and perhaps the Algerians who attended the game) Egypt won by two goals.

For those who watched the game on television, another disturbing show was on. Tens of thousands of Egyptians painted their faces in red, white and black, or simply wrapped themselves in their country's flag. They chanted demeaning and offensive songs of their North African counterparts. It was a show of (uncharacteristic) super patriotism and perplexing hatred of Algerians. These displays were uncalled for, to put it mildly. Indeed, a number of commentators found it hard to decipher where this is coming from. Egypt and Algeria have traditionally enjoyed a harmonious relationship, since Nasser aided the anti-colonial liberation movement in Algeria. This support prompted a retaliatory invasion of Egypt in 1956 by France (Britain and Israel partook in the aggression for different reasons) that proved costly.

So, where is this coming from? Let me suggest a couple of possibilities. First, Egyptians' fixation over soccer has little to do with their excessive love for the sport (and it is excessive indeed). Despite a backdrop of growing political oppression, strategic frustrations, economic stagnation, rising unemployment and societal upheaval, soccer offers Egyptians an opportunity to win. In an age when Egyptians feel hopeless, soccer is their only hope; Abu Trika is their new prophet.

Second, keenly aware of its own unpopularity and shortcomings, the Mubarak regime is desperate to use soccer to make itself more palatable. Not only does the Egyptian president proclaim himself the "guardian of Egyptian sports," (a title only cited when Egyptian teams are victorious), but his son, and presumed successor, Gamal attends the game in the stadium to beef up his "ordinary citizen" credentials. If Mubarak's son is to inherit the presidential palace, he has to also inherit the guardianship of Egyptian sports. Every time the Egyptian team scored, the camera would cut into footage of a celebrating Gamal Mubarak. In short, the Mubaraks have a vested interest in the elevated tension and anticipation surrounding the game. It is an opportunity to advertise Gamal Mubarak to as many Egyptians mesmerized to their television sets as possible.

Algerians have counter-attacked by destroying Egyptian properties in Algiers and harassing Egyptian citizens. Little do they know that Egyptians' anti-Algerian tirades emanate not from antipathy, but from exasperation with the prevalent socio-economic and political conditions in Egypt. Soccer riots in Egypt are the continuation of politics by other means.


November 12, 2009

Lebanon United...?!


Deal or no deal?! Berri, Al-Hariri and Nasrallah.


After several months of stalled talks, Sa'd al-Hariri, the prime minister-designate of Lebanon, was finally able to form a unity government. Al-Hariri heads the "14 Azar Movement," a pro-Western parliamentary coalition that won the majority in this summer's elections. Although 14 Azar's victory exceeded most expectations, cracks did show within the coalition. First, Waleed Jumblat's Druze party defected to the Hizbullah-led opposition. Second, Amin Al-Jemail's "Lebanese Brigades" publicly denounced Hariri's decision to appoint only one minister from the Brigades in the ineffectual Social Affairs ministry. The Lebanese Brigades also called for a review of the structure of the coalition. These protests emanate from a growing sense of irrelevance among Maronite Christians and Muslim Druze, two minorities whose demographics and political clout have been diminishing vis-a-vis the Sunnis and the Shi'a.

The new government is more or less the fruit of a deal between Hizbullah and Hariri's Future party. The deal was arguably made on their behalf during King Abdullah's visit to Damascus in October. This episode reveals three things about Lebanon. First, external patrons still call the shots. Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia are all heavily invested in domestic Lebanese politics. Second, the power of arms (Hizbullah via Iran and Syria) and the power of money (14 Azar via Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries) dictate the relative balance of power among the sectarian political actors. In the annual conference of the Middle East Institute in Washington, Sami Al-Faraj, the head of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies openly bragged about the financial influence of the Gulf Sheikhdoms in determining the outcome of the Lebanese elections. Finally, the Shi'a and Sunnis growing populations have indeed eclipsed those of other sectarian groups, most notably the Druze and the Maronites.

But there is hope yet for a stable Lebanon. The new government not only enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia and Syria, it also enjoys the support of Hizbullah. Lebanese president Michell Souleiman threw his lot behind it too. This could indeed bode well for the stability of Lebanese politics for the foreseeable future. To be sure, national unity governments often avoid tackling controversial and divisive issues whose mere discussion may well bring down the coalition government. This is why such issues as reforming electoral laws and Hizbullah's arms are not likely to be addressed by this government.

More trouble can come yet from the southern borders. Israel claims to have intercepted an Iranian arms shipment bound for Latika, Syria. The missiles are alleged to have been sent for Hizbullah. A number of senior Israel Defense Forces figures have also warned Hizbullah of massive retaliation, should the Lebanese militia avenge the assassination of its military mastermind, Emad Moughneih. Hassan Nassrallah, the Secretary General of Hizbullah, speaking on "Martyr's Day" issued a stark warning for Israel not to launch a war on Lebanon, or risk the "crushing of its army." He neither affirmed nor denied the Israeli claim of his group's possession of 325 kilometer-range missiles, though he promised any land invasion to be nothing short of a quagmire. Hizbullah's political bureau chief Mohammed Qomati also warned that "all cities, military bases, factories, and settlements in Israel are within the organization's firing range." Qomati continued, "The enemy knows that any offensive initiated under the current conditions will ensure his total defeat, will change the balance of power in our favor, and will bring about the end of its entity."

Hizbullah's secretary general had select words for the Obama administration as well. After accusing Washington of deliberately backpedaling on the settlements stance, he admonished his followers that the Obama administration's "infinite" commitment to Israel's interests security is unprecedented. Nasrallah painted a pro-Israeli Obama administration that does not care about the needs of the Arab world. The Cairo speech was a scam, he implied.

As Hariri struggles to stabilize his country domestically, Lebanon's foremost challenge appears to be avoiding another devastating war with Israel. Neither Nasrallah nor Ashkinazi are helping.